How do people form expectations about the future rate of inflation? This question is of great importance, both for individual behaviour and for central bank policy. A consortium of researchers from the University of Regensburg, the University of Chicago and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, led by Prof. Dr Fabian Kindermann , now wants to investigate this question in more detail. The focus is on the differences in the expectations of women and men. Although these are empirically verifiable, their underlying mechanisms are still largely unknown.

The project, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) with around 200,000 euros, provides for a cross-national survey study that analyses inflation expectations and the significance of gender roles in the formation of expectations. To this end, an online survey will be conducted in at least 26 countries at different stages of economic and societal development.

The study will analyse individual inflation forecasts, sources of information and the perception of prevailing gender role models. Furthermore, the socio-demographic background, preferences, financial and economic knowledge as well as cognitive abilities are surveyed. Finally, it analyses individual consumption and saving behaviour, behaviour in wage negotiations and financial assets in order to determine the effects of different inflation expectations on individual behaviour.

"The project is intended to make a significant contribution to understanding the significance of gender roles for the formation of expectations with regard to key macro-financial variables and to provide crucial facts regarding gender differences in financial decision-making," says Prof Dr Kindermann, describing the research objectives of the project.

Website of Prof Dr Fabian Kindermann
Website of Prof Michael Weber, PhD (University of Chicago) (external link, opens in a new window)